25 years ago in the year 2000 the white
British population was about 90% of the
British population. It is now closer to
70%. We've seen a huge demographic
change.
>> But do you do you mind about that? I
mean what's the problem?
>> I think that's an enormous problem to to
a lot of people. I think we're heading
back into really worrying times and also
that this is being caused a lot by
politicians and by um sections of the
media. Nigel Farage is talking about
paying autocratic regimes. He's talking
about dismantling Britain's post-war
treaties and fundamental rights, locking
up women and children. I mean, is this
who we are as a country?
[Music]
Hello and welcome to the forecast. Nigel
Farage has put mass deportations at the
center of his new immigration plan,
promising to detain and remove hundreds
of thousands of asylum seekers from the
UK. While reform currently only have
four MPs, polling suggests they could
win the next election and be in a
position to implement this. It is a
striking escalation in the rhetoric
around immigration, raising the question
of whether this marks a real turning
point in British politics. Has anything
like this been attempted before? Is it
even possible? And how does it fit into
the long, often heated history of
immigration policy in the UK? Joining
me, Jacqueline McKenzie, a partner at
the human rights law firm Lee Day, who
specializes in immigration and asylum
cases, and journalist and author David
Goodhart, who's written extensively
about immigration. Welcome to you both.
David Goodhart, let me start with you.
Do you think the public will see Nigel
Farage's plan as sort of solving a
problem or will they view it as sounding
a bit bigoted?
>> Um, well, the public will be divided on
it. Um but I think you know given what
we've seen recently in opinion polling
how immigr I mean you know despite the
um the kind of sluggishness of the
economy and problems with the NHS
immigration has leapt ahead once again
to be the biggest single uh worry that
people have. Um so obviously he's he's
tapping into that. I mean but obviously
this has been building up for years and
years and years. is I mean you know we
we could go back to 1997 when we saw a
step change in in rates of immigration.
Um and and then then of course we had
Brexit which was partly driven by by
immigration the feeling that free
movement was too free in a way that
people could come here and immediately
enjoy all the rights of a British
citizen. We had 2019
um with you know the a promise of you
know getting Brexit done and and
leveling up and and controlling
immigration uh because we now you know
we were no longer in the EU we could
control it and uh uh and that didn't
happen in indeed we had a huge increase
in legal migration uh uh uh so we now
have kind of the worst world we have
huge huge legal migration obviously it's
come down quite a lot in in the last
year or so but we were up to absolutely,
you know, extraordinary levels sort of 7
800,000 a year. Um, and and we have the
combined with that we have the
escalating channel issue.
>> Let me let me bring in Jacqueline
McKenzie then here because that's the
point, isn't it? Successive governments
have failed on this and now Nigel Far
steps in and says, "Hey, I can fix it."
No wonder people are listening.
Overwhelmingly, people are still more
concerned about, you know, their their
life, you know, what money they have in
their pocket, uh whether they're going
to be able to access health care, um
whether they
>> they're now more concerned about
immigration, aren't they?
>> Well, well, I haven't seen any uh formal
opinion polls on this, but we do know in
the last election it counted as
something quite low down the priority
list. Now, I I accept that it has risen.
I don't know where it is in terms of you
know actual uh opinion poll information.
the top concern according to Yuggov at
the last opinion poll now it's now far
ahead of the economy in the NHS and
that's the point Nigel Farage is
responding to that
>> then I think um then that's fair enough
but I think we do have to ask how have
we come to a position where you know
100,000 people seeking asylum and there
weren't 100,000 people crossing the
channel but 100,000 people are seeking
asylum because not everybody uh crosses
the channel um you know people come in
other ways is um how is it that that
number of people when we know there are
120 million people displaced around the
world you know we saw Bangladesh take in
a million Rohhingas Colombia took in 2
million Venezuelans etc etc how is it
that that number of people which is
relatively a small number certainly less
than France and Germany takes in um when
you think we're the fifth largest
economy um how is it that that has
become the main talking point it it is
46 46% rise on the same period last year
have come across the channel in small
boats this year. So it's a big rise,
isn't it?
>> It's a big it's a huge rise and it's
because um and it's not the highest
number. We've had higher numbers before
and people came in in different ways,
didn't they? Came in via lorry and under
the Euro Star in all manner of ways, but
this is highly visible. People are
coming in in these small boats. Um you
know, politicians, organizations, some
sections of the media make a big thing
of it.
and they it's still fear.
>> But you think the UK should be able to
um absorb and and and tolerate that
level.
>> I think the numbers are small enough for
us to be able to do that. I do accept
that there are issues across society.
There is a lack, you know, I've been a
school governor. I mean, there real
pressures on school places. There's
pressure on the NHS and so forth. But
whose fault is it? Is it the small
number of people who come over in those
boats? And when I say a small number, a
small number in comparison to numbers of
people fleeing persecution for whatever
reason or even I accept that some people
just want a better life.
>> Let me put that back to let me put that
back to David. It's a small number in
the scheme of things.
>> Yeah, I mean it is a relatively small
number, but it's the visibility of the
channel crossings. Um I mean I agree
that only about I think about getting on
for a half of asylum applications come
from channel crosses. Uh I mean the rest
are there are still people coming in on
lorries and there are also a lot of
people who overstay visas people who
come in legally and then claim asylum
subsequently. Um but I do think I mean
there is a growing consensus now across
left and right across the whole of
Europe that our laws that were um that
were designed for a different world. You
know the 1951 convention, the European
Convention on Human Rights which which
adds various other restrictions that
make it harder to deport people or stop
them coming in the first place. These
were designed for a world in which very
few people moved.
>> Right. Let me put that to Jacqueline.
>> Well, some would argue that a refugee
convention is not fit for purpose but
for a different reason because there is
going to be an argument for people
coming here for reasons outside the
convention i.e. because they cannot
survive economically or because of
climate justice or for all manner of
reasons in their current states and very
often they're moving to countries which
have contributed to some of the problems
in their own.
>> David
I mean I think you know most people in
rich countries do not regard themselves
as as responsible for colonialism or
imperialism. Uh you know that is now
many many many generations back. Um no I
mean I think you know do you want a kind
of balanced evolution of the planet? Do
you want balanced development? Um, you
know, if you do, if you don't want
everybody ending up in Shepherd's Bush
or or Brooklyn, uh, then we need to
control this process. I agree that rich
countries should be, you know, generous.
They should they should create systems
that do allow those people who are
genuinely facing persecution. I mean
there are many authoritarian regimes in
the world and you know there are many
you know opposition leaders who find
themselves you know with a bullet in the
head in a South African hotel. I mean
David you talk about being generous.
Nigel Farage is talking about paying
autocratic regimes. He's talking about
dismantling Britain's post-war treaties
and fundamental rights, locking up women
and children. I mean is this who we are
as a country?
Well, I think uh you know it's a
response to the facts, you know, it is a
response to this, as I say, this this
sort of collision of the extraordinarily
high level high level of legal
immigration and of the the the very high
visibility and I don't just mean the
visibility crossing the channel. I mean,
I think, you know, the the the fact that
it's the it's the the hotel in the town
where people had their wedding
anniversary and, you know, that the I
mean, it's just it it does seem an
extraordinary uh mistake in a way on the
part of the political class to think
that you could just stick a whole lot
of, you know, young men from Afghanistan
or wherever in a hotel in the middle of
a small town like Eping and nobody would
kind of notice. Um
>> and and Jacqueline, you know,
allegations against male asylum seekers
have fueled discontent and that's
legitimate, isn't it?
>> I mean, of course. I mean, you know, I
if there are uh sex offenders anywhere,
you know, amongst asylum seekers,
amongst refugees, amongst the indigenous
British population, amongst white men,
then of course um that is legitimate uh
cause for concern. And there does seem
to be some evidence that there are some
foreign national groups uh where crime
particularly sex crime is is higher than
the existing male population. You'd kind
of expect that. I mean that's sort of
you know people coming from very very
traditional societies with very
different attitudes to women suddenly
find themselves in society where you
know in in London with you know women
not wearing very many clothes in the hot
weather. this is kind you know this is
not uh what they are used to and some
some these places are behaving very
badly
>> I mean I mean that's so dangerous I mean
that's so dangerous um you know to
castigate an entire group well it's
castigating an entire group of people
and in fact in the in the statistics
that was put out recently by Ministry of
Justice and confirmed by the home office
about who it is that's in prison you
know when there was this discussion
about foreign national prisoners of
which we found you know that they were 3
to 4 thousands of them. Um, you know, we
found that and and and very often when
this discussion about communities and
culture and so we're often talking about
Muslim men or Asian men, particularly
South Asian men and we found that they
are under represented of all the groups.
They were the most under reppresented in
the prison population. So yes, there are
problems in that community. There's
absolutely no doubt about it. We sat and
watched um the stories about grooming in
Wtherham and Old and Bolton, but we but
we can't go around accusing entire
communities. We can't we just can't do
that.
>> I'm not doing that. I mean, but it's
certainly not the case that Muslim men
are not under reppresented in British
prisons. Uh uh it may be that Indian men
are. Um Chinese
>> Asian the term was Asian.
>> Yeah.
>> I I don't think well we're not going to
agree on this. But I mean I think we
need to go back to this original
question of you know how open rich
western societies should be and I think
we should be generous um when it comes
to taking certain proportion of people
every year who are who have suffered as
a result of natural disasters
um or or war. There are there are
hundreds of thousands or millions of
people in UNHCR camps but we need to
select them. We need to protect the most
vulnerable people.
>> But but David, let me just put to you,
there's an uncomfortable echo of the
language of the 1970s. You know, the
National Front poster from the 1970s
that said, "Make Britain great again.
Stop immigration, start repatriation." I
mean, is this where we've moved as a
country now?
>> Well, it's it's responding to a very
different universe. we remain, you know,
um, you know, there is a very, um, I
Jacqueline didn't seem to be aware of
this, but as you pointed out, I mean, it
is now the most important issue for
people despite the the weakness of the
economy. Um, and we are um, we're
worrying about a real thing. I mean,
>> is that whipped up by Farage actually?
Because I mean, it does seem slightly
bizarre that given the cost of living,
you know, high inflation, etc., People
are worrying more about this than, you
know, the pound in their pocket.
>> Well, um, yes. I mean, you know,
politicians, um, you know, who have
thrived off a certain approach, you
know, and Nigel Farage has done very
well, um, by emphasizing the two things
that our political class have kind of
most ignored among among the British
public. One of them is high level, one
of them is immigration, the other is
national sovereignty. That is how he has
done very well. And why why would he
stop now? But I want to just make this
point comparing us now to the 1970s. We
are a miles more liberal country. I mean
the number of people in Britain who say
you have to be white to be truly British
is something like five or 6%. You know
the number of people a different subject
but I mean again an indicator of our
kind of liberalism. The number of people
who say, you know, a man should go out
to work and a woman should stay at home
and and look after the household and
children is also about 5%. We're a very
very liberal country.
>> Let's put that to Jacqueline. You know,
we've changed a million miles from the
1970s. You know, people who say the far
right is now mainstream, it's just not
true.
>> I mean, I think, you know, my parents
are first generation Wind Rush and, you
know, I grew up hearing the stories and
of course I work mainly with with
Windrush clients. you know, I've grown
up hearing the stories about no blacks,
no dogs, no Irish. It's quite part of
our popular culture. So, you know, um
absolutely things have changed from
then. But what I fear now is that things
are going back there. Um you know, I
worry for my uh teenage son being out at
night. Um you know, we see graffiti even
on my street which is in an area which
is a very cohesive area. Not ever seen
any racist graffiti. My daughter pointed
out something that had been written on a
on a telephone um poll um a few months
ago and how saddened she was um you know
she's second generation born in the UK.
So I think we're heading back into
really worrying times and also that this
is being caused a lot by politicians and
by um sections of the media and of
course by some organizations because you
know you're absolutely right and David
is absolutely right that on the other
side of that coin are some incredible
wonderful positive signs you know up and
down the country are hundreds of
organizations mostly run by elderly
white women in their villages and
communities running refugee uh support
and welcoming organizations, you know,
providing meals and blankets and things.
We see some great stuff.
>> But David, I mean, you know, just
hearing those stories from Jacqueline,
you know, a recent migrant or a migrant
of longstanding is going to find some of
this language very upsetting, possibly
even terrifying. And that's let alone
the the refugees who have come in and
find people camped outside their their
hotels.
>> Yeah. I mean, but then I mean I I agree
with Jacqueline. I I have black and
Asian friends who say that they have for
the first time um you know been the
subject of uh bad mouthing, racist bad
mouthing. Um and but you know the issue
is you know do we um do we actually
respond? I mean we've had a democratic
failure here. We're emboldening that
tiny number of people. I mean, I don't
think it's even 5%, but it's a kind of
fraction of those 5% of people, you
know, who are racist nutters. Um, you
have them in all societies at all times.
You know, a very small number of people
who, you know, for for whatever reason
feel very insecure about their about
their status in society or whatever. Um
but you know do we we're emboldening
those people by not responding to but by
by our democracy not responding to the
completely legitimate demand of the vast
majority of people for slower slower
change slower of immigration. 25 years
ago in the year 2000 the white British
population was about 90% of the British
population. It is now closer to 70%.
We've seen a huge demographic change and
that and that, you know, in in many
towns and cities and suburbs, you know,
that that has, you know, has completely
changed.
mean, what's the problem?
>> I think that's an enormous problem. I
mean, to to a lot of people, people
human beings tend to prefer familiarity
and security.
>> That's just racist, isn't it?
>> They are not. No, no, absolutely not.
No, people are people are and and I
think the language is often sort of
twisted here. People are not
anti-immigrant. They are anti-mass
immigration. They are anti-radical
change to their to their way of life to
you know if suddenly your neighborhood
fills up with people who have very
different uh attitudes to religion to
you who speak a different language to
you. You may not feel uncomfortable.
Lots of lots of our fellow citizens do
feel uncert
that's not an
>> I think that
>> I mean I think that worries me greatly
that anyone feels like that you know I
mean my mother lives in a tiny island
called Grenada in the Caribbean and we
have a lot of English people going there
because it's sunny and you can buy
property quite cheap you know we've got
people coming in from China and all over
the world and it all makes for a
wonderful sort of you know comm you know
a cohesive community I mean we are part
of the world. Look at the United States.
Look at Canada. Most of Europe, most of
the world, wherever you have a
homogeneous society, a society that most
of us would not want to live in. Who
wants to live in North Korea where
almost 99% of the population is North
Korean? Um, it is wonderful that, you
know, you can eat your way around the
world in the UK and that your neighbors
can be from anywhere. We learn from
that. Um, do some cultures bring
practices with them that make some of us
feel uncomfortable? Absolutely they do.
>> Jacqueline McKenzie, David Goodhot,
thank you both very much for joining us.
Well, that is it for this episode of the
forecast. Until next time, goodbye.